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Firefly, Serenity

Within Reason

Posted on 2012.01.09 at 09:20


ehowton at 2012-01-10 20:25 (UTC) (Link)
However, each of the bits of evidence has reliability and probability statistics associated with it...

In my previous career, we applied the following criteria to each piece of information: possible, probable or confirmed. There was also a category for of possible value which required an ability to piece together numerous, seemingly innocuous items for a broader collective perspective.

People truly -are- irrational, at a core level.

I believe that, yes. My intent is to try and flatten the playing field just a bit by proving it first, rather than assuming it. And in that way, it will hopefully also be applied to me :)

That being said the Bayesian probability is fascinating! I haven't run across that before. I will want to study it further. See if I'm making statistical errors myself in order to correct them, and then see where else they can be applied - thanks!

Edited at 2012-01-10 08:26 pm (UTC)
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